The Weekly | Markets at new highs, inflation in check and opportunities ahead

U.S. inflation remained tepid in June while global equities, including the S&P 500 and S&P/ASX 200 moved to all time highs. Closer to home, a softer labour print lifted expectations of The Reserve Bank of Australia cutting rates in August. Against this backdrop of steady prices and evolving trade dynamics, highlighted by new approved U.S. tariffs and China’s rare‑earth restrictions, the investment team are positioning the investment portfolios for both resilience and opportunity in the second half of 2025.

Market Updates

The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index rose 2.1% for the week, closing at a new record high. All sectors finished higher, led by information technology (+5.2%) and healthcare (+4.8%). The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index also ended 3.2% higher. Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in June, the highest since November 2021, increasing the likelihood of a potential rate cut in August.

In the U.S., the S&P 500 (large caps) also reached a new record high, gaining 0.6% for the week, supported by strong corporate earnings and solid consumer data. The MSCI World Index (AUD) rose 1.5% while the S&P Small Cap 600 declined 0.8%.

In China, second quarter GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, supported by resilient export activity despite ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. Lithium prices also jumped 7.6% during the week after a Chinese mine suspended operations, easing oversupply concerns.

Canada imposed new trade measures, including restrictions on foreign steel imports and a 25% tariff on products containing Chinese processed steel. Domestic producers reported being squeezed by cheap imports and existing U.S. tariffs.

Key watchpoints for the week ahead include potential trade negotiations involving the U.S. and its key partners, the ongoing U.S. earnings season and Thursday’s European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision.

Stock Watch

Iluka Resources (ASX: ILU) and Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC)

Rare earth miners Lynas Rare Earths and Iluka Resources saw share price gains last week after several announcements supporting higher long-term pricing for neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr). The U.S. Department of Defense committed US$400 million to MP Materials (NYSE: MP) to build domestic magnet-making capacity, including a price floor of US$110/kg for NdPr – double China’s current price. Apple also signed a US$500 million magnet supply deal with MP Materials, tightening Western supply. Separately, China’s new export restrictions on seven rare earths further elevate the strategic value of non-Chinese producers. We have been topping up our position in Iluka, with valuations for rare earth miners poised to benefit if NdPr prices remain near the U.S. floor.

Held in: WAM Leaders (ASX: WLE), WAM Income Maximiser (ASX: WMX) and Wilson Asset Management Leaders Fund

HUB24 (ASX: HUB)

Last week, HUB24, a leading provider of investment and superannuation platform solutions, reported a strong June quarter update. Platform funds under administration (FUA) grew 10% over the quarter to A$112.7 billion, marking a 34% increase year-on-year. The company has a strong pipeline of opportunities from both new and existing relationships, and the latest update reinforced investor confidence in HUB24’s growth trajectory and platform strength.

Held in: WAM Capital (ASX: WAM) and WAM Active (ASX: WAA)

Synopsys (NASDAQ: SNPS)

Last week, Synopsys, a global leader in chip design software, received final approval from Chinese regulators for its US$35 billion acquisition of Ansys (ANSS), clearing the last hurdle for the deal. Ansys is a leader in simulation (software used to virtually test and model how chips and systems will perform) with around 15% of its business tied to semiconductors. While the timing of China’s approval was uncertain, we believed the deal would proceed and had been buying into share price weakness ahead of the announcement. Synopsys also stands to benefit from the U.S. announcement on 2 July that it would lift export restrictions on EDA tools to China.

​​​​​Held in: WAM Global (ASX: WGB)

Quantem (Palisade Investment Partners)

Quantem is an independent owner and operator of bulk liquid storage facilities located at 11 key ports across Australia and New Zealand, with approximately 600,000 cubic metres of capacity. Quantem recently secured a grant from the Federal Government to advance energy efficiency and electrification projects at its terminals in Queensland, Victoria and NSW, which they expect to provide cost efficiencies and improve decarbonisation. Our investment partner Palisade Investment Partners continues to implement operational improvements and ESG improvements at the Quantem terminals, including the expansion of Pelican Point terminal in South Australia.

Held in: WAM Alternative Assets (ASX: WMA)

Still waiting for tariffs to fully show up in inflation data

June U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data remained subdued, with headline inflation rising 0.3% in line with expectations and core inflation (excluding food and energy) increasing just 0.2%. This has investors asking when the inflationary impact of Trump’s tariffs will show up in the data. If it doesn’t, the Federal Reserve may have more flexibility to cut rates, a positive for equities. For now, equity markets are supported by the absence of a growth shock and contained inflation. However, if tariffs begin to push prices higher, profitability will become more important in stock selection. While there may be less need for defensive positioning if global growth bottoms out or fiscal support returns, quality metrics remains key in a higher inflation, higher bond yield environment.

Index returns performance table

WAM Income Maximiser inaugural monthly dividend and initial dividend guidance

On Friday, the WAM Income Maximiser Board of Directors declared the Company’s inaugural fully franked dividend of 0.20 cents per share, payable on 29 August 2025. We have also announced initial guidance for the September and October dividend payments.

Key dividend dates are:

• Ex-dividend date: 14 August 2025
• Dividend record date (7:00pm Sydney time): 15 August 2025
• Last election date for DRP: 19 August 2025
• Payment date: 29 August 2025

You can find the full announcement including initial dividend guidance here​​​.​

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If you have any feedback you would like to share or wish to speak to a member of the Wilson Asset Management team, please respond to this email or call Christopher Ball on 02 9247 6755. You can also email us at [email protected]​​​​​.

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^*All Australian S&P indexes in this table are accumulation indexes, meaning they account for both price changes and the reinvestment of dividends, providing a measure of total return.

^#MSCI World (MSCI Daily Total Return Net World) and MSCI World SMID (MSCI WORLD SMID CAP Net Return) are both in AUD and are total return indexes i.e. include share prices and dividends. S&P 500 Index and Russell 2000 Index are similarly total return indexes.

^{^}Corporate bond yields represent the return investors receive for holding debt securities issued by companies. These yields vary based on factors such as the issuer’s credit rating, economic conditions, and market interest rates, serving as a key benchmark for corporate borrowing costs.

^**Australian long-term government bond yields represent the interest rates on government debt securities with extended maturities, typically 10 years or more. These yields reflect investor expectations for inflation, economic growth, and monetary policy, serving as a key benchmark for long-term borrowing costs in the economy.

^##The RBA cash rate refers to the interest rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for overnight loans between banks. It serves as a benchmark for borrowing costs across the economy, influencing interest rates on mortgages, savings accounts, and business loans.e