Markets ended the week mixed, with rising oil prices – driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East – supporting gains in the energy sector. In company news, APA Group (ASX: APA), Kelsian Group (ASX: KLS) and Genius Sports (NYSE: GENI) all reported positive developments relating to earnings accretive acquisitions, contract wins and extensions. Findex Group also continues to deliver strong growth across all divisions. Looking ahead, we highlight key economic events that could shape market direction in the weeks to come.
Market Updates
The S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Index declined 0.5% over the week, with strength in energy stocks (+5.3%) offset by declines in other sectors, including materials (-4.3%). The S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index also ended the week lower, down 1.0%.
In global markets, the S&P 500 (U.S. large caps) declined 0.1% while the Russell 2000 (U.S. small caps) and the MSCI World Index (AUD) both increased 0.4%. Market sentiment remained cautious amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. While the situation between Iran and Israel continues to evolve, many investors appear to be adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach, mindful that any resolution could see markets rebound.
As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%–4.50% at its June policy meeting, marking the fourth consecutive hold as it assesses incoming inflation and labour market data.
Uranium prices rose 7.3% over the week, driven by increased demand in an already tight spot market. Oil prices also climbed for a third consecutive week, up 3.7%, amid concerns over potential supply disruptions stemming from escalating Israel–Iran tensions, which we explore in more detail below.
Looking ahead, key events this week include Australia’s monthly CPI Indicator and China’s National People’s Congress Standing Committee meeting, where policymakers may consider responses to new U.S. tariffs and broader geopolitical developments.
Stock Watch
APA Group
APA Group, Australia’s largest natural gas infrastructure business, last week acquired the Atlas to Reedy Creek Pipeline (ARCP) from Senex for $110 million. The deal includes a 20-year, inflation-linked take-or-pay agreement, initially covering 60 terajoules (a unit of energy, specifically one million joules) per day. The pipeline became operational in February 2025 and is expected to contribute approximately $12 million in annual EBITDA. The acquisition will be funded from APA’s existing balance sheet and is expected to be immediately cash flow accretive, with analysts estimating a pre-tax internal rate of return (IRR) of 18–19%. The transaction further strengthens APA’s East Coast Gas Grid, enhances regional connectivity, and supports the company’s strategy centred on gas pipelines and remote energy infrastructure.
Held in: WAM Leaders (ASX: WLE), WAM Income Maximiser (ASX: WMX) and Wilson Asset Management Leaders Fund
Kelsian
Kelsian Group, Australia’s largest integrated land and marine transport operator, announced two new contract wins last week, including a strategic agreement with Worley (ASX: WOR), signalling renewed momentum across its core operations. These developments follow management’s April decision to initiate a formal sale process for non-core tourism assets (estimated to be $130–180 million), as part of its strategy to simplify the business and reduce balance sheet gearing. Green shoots – such as recent contract wins and extensions, solid third quarter FY2025 trading and free cash flow, and early signs of deleveraging – point to reduced risk of an earnings plateau in FY2027. Despite the share price increasing 17.8% last week, it is still trading below its intrinsic value and we believe Kelsian offers an attractive risk-reward profile with improving operational clarity.
Held in: WAM Active (ASX: WAA) and WAM Microcap (ASX: WAX)
Genius Sports
Genius Sports, a leading provider of sports data and technology for sportsbook operators, recently extended its NFL partnership through 2029 at a higher price that the original deal that started in April 2021. The company remains the exclusive distributor of live play-by-play data, Next Gen Stats, and ‘Watch & Bet’ low-latency streams to sportsbooks and publishers globally. The deal will expand to provide Genius with the rights to sell digital advertising inventory on the NFL’s owned and operated media properties and across all categories internationally. With its exclusive rights to data, video, and ad inventory, Genius stands to benefit from higher take‑rates and profit margins, making it an increasingly compelling investment in the sports‑tech and betting ecosystem.
Held in: WAM Global (ASX: WGB)
Findex Group (Intermediate Capital Group)
Findex Group, founded in 1987, has successfully grown into one of Australia’s leading independent providers of retail financial planning, accounting and wealth management services. The business is highly cashflow generative, supported by a diversified and highly recurring revenue stream, making it an ideal creditor for a private debt investment. Findex continues to grow strongly across all divisions through organic growth and strategic acquisitions.
Held in: WAM Alternative Assets (ASX: WMA)
Middle Eastern conflict threatens to push up oil prices and global inflation
Crude oil prices have risen approximately 34% since May lows. U.S. involvement in the Middle Eastern conflict is causing investors to worry about an escalation and broadening of tensions, with potentially disruptive effects on crude oil supply. In particular, traders are now concerned that Iran may move to close the Straits of Hormuz, a route critical for Asian buyers of Iranian crude oil. To be sure, geopolitical commentators are sceptical that closure of the Straits of Hormuz will be long-lasting and see potential for other Middle Eastern suppliers to step up production to counter Iranian supply constraints. Even so, there is now considerable uncertainty, adding to existing concerns about the impact of the new U.S. tariff regime on global supply chains.
We highlight that since 2023, global industrial production (IP), a proxy for global oil demand, has been growing faster than global crude oil production. History suggests that if this demand-to-supply imbalance persists for a sustained period, we are likely to see higher oil prices. Even if world IP growth slows because of tariff- and geopolitical- related uncertainty, the risk is that global crude oil supply growth may slow by at least as much, reinforcing a state of excess demand and supporting higher-for-longer oil prices.
There are also negative repercussions for government bonds if rising oil prices contribute to higher inflation, prompting central banks to hold off on rate cuts. For equities, maintaining energy exposures makes sense as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks.
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